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In a recent discussion, Allegra Stratton and Stephanie Flanders highlighted the trend of US executives refraining from endorsing presidential candidates like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Charles Elson of the Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance suggests this impartiality reflects a return to tradition, driven more by concerns over customer backlash than fear of political retribution.
Bitcoin narrowly misses its all-time high, influenced by the US election and monetary policy, with polls showing Trump leading Harris, raising hopes for a crypto-friendly presidency. Recent ADP data exceeded expectations, while upcoming US price data and Non-Farm Payrolls are under scrutiny for monetary policy insights. A sustained breakthrough of the record high could lead Bitcoin towards $80,000, though profit-taking risks remain, with $60,000 as an initial target.
The US presidential election significantly impacts global markets, particularly the ASX, with potential shifts in tech, healthcare, mining, and energy sectors. A Trump administration may favor deregulation and free-market policies, benefiting companies like Xero and CSL, while a Harris administration could impose stricter regulations, affecting compliance costs and market dynamics. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as changes in tariffs and trade policies could influence stock performance and economic growth.
Wall Street is increasingly attentive to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based predictions market, which suggests a 67% chance of Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election, despite skepticism regarding the reliability of its signals. As Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump are nearly tied in recent polls, the platform's betting activity is drawing interest from savvy traders, even as critics warn that large bets and a pro-crypto bias may distort the probabilities.
Heavy flooding in Spain has resulted in at least 51 fatalities, particularly affecting the Valencia region, with ongoing rescue efforts. In Switzerland, the National Bank is launching a design competition for new banknotes themed "Switzerland and its altitudes," while UBS reports a quarterly profit of $1.43 billion. Roger Federer has abandoned plans for a boathouse in Rapperswil due to environmental appeals, and Kamala Harris delivered a significant campaign speech to over 75,000 supporters in Washington.
Ray Dalio expressed deep concerns about America's political landscape post-election, highlighting the irreconcilable differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. He emphasized the need for a unifying leader to implement significant reforms, warning that both candidates could exacerbate the rising U.S. deficit and internal conflicts. Dalio also noted the importance of including gold in investment portfolios to mitigate risks amid increasing U.S. Treasury supply and potential economic downturns.
Christopher Hodge, Head US Economist at Natixis CIB, suggests that if Donald Trump becomes president again, he will face significant constraints that will limit his ability to implement his promises, particularly regarding tariffs and fiscal policy. Both major parties are contributing to rising US debt, which could become critical by 2032, and the increasing use of the dollar in sanctions may undermine its status as a reserve currency. Hodge believes that the realities of governance will temper Trump's more extreme proposals, leading to a more cautious approach to both domestic and foreign policy.
The US economy experienced robust growth of 2.8% in the third quarter, surpassing estimates that ranged from 2.0% to 3.5%. This follows a 3% growth rate in the second quarter and exceeds the Federal Reserve's non-inflationary growth benchmark of approximately 1.8%. The advance GDP estimate was released just days before the November 5 elections, where voters will choose between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, slightly below expectations, driven by strong consumer spending and a significant increase in federal government outlays. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.7%, while inflation remained below the Federal Reserve's target, prompting expectations for further interest rate cuts. Despite ongoing economic growth, concerns about inflation persist as the presidential race heats up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, a renowned election prognosticator, predicts Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election, citing his "thirteen keys to the White House" model. He notes the unique challenges of this election, including Trump's legal issues and the historical context of the Electoral College. Despite past inaccuracies, Lichtman emphasizes the solid quantitative foundation of his system, which has accurately forecasted election outcomes for decades.
Kamala Harris
People
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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