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Heavy flooding in Spain has resulted in at least 51 fatalities, particularly affecting the Valencia region, with ongoing rescue efforts. In Switzerland, the National Bank is launching a design competition for new banknotes themed "Switzerland and its altitudes," while UBS reports a quarterly profit of $1.43 billion. Roger Federer has abandoned plans for a boathouse in Rapperswil due to environmental appeals, and Kamala Harris delivered a significant campaign speech to over 75,000 supporters in Washington.
Ray Dalio expressed deep concerns about America's political landscape post-election, highlighting the irreconcilable differences between the Democratic and Republican parties. He emphasized the need for a unifying leader to implement significant reforms, warning that both candidates could exacerbate the rising U.S. deficit and internal conflicts. Dalio also noted the importance of including gold in investment portfolios to mitigate risks amid increasing U.S. Treasury supply and potential economic downturns.
Christopher Hodge, Head US Economist at Natixis CIB, suggests that if Donald Trump becomes president again, he will face significant constraints that will limit his ability to implement his promises, particularly regarding tariffs and fiscal policy. Both major parties are contributing to rising US debt, which could become critical by 2032, and the increasing use of the dollar in sanctions may undermine its status as a reserve currency. Hodge believes that the realities of governance will temper Trump's more extreme proposals, leading to a more cautious approach to both domestic and foreign policy.
The US economy experienced robust growth of 2.8% in the third quarter, surpassing estimates that ranged from 2.0% to 3.5%. This follows a 3% growth rate in the second quarter and exceeds the Federal Reserve's non-inflationary growth benchmark of approximately 1.8%. The advance GDP estimate was released just days before the November 5 elections, where voters will choose between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, slightly below expectations, driven by strong consumer spending and a significant increase in federal government outlays. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.7%, while inflation remained below the Federal Reserve's target, prompting expectations for further interest rate cuts. Despite ongoing economic growth, concerns about inflation persist as the presidential race heats up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, a renowned election prognosticator, predicts Kamala Harris will win the upcoming election, citing his "thirteen keys to the White House" model. He notes the unique challenges of this election, including Trump's legal issues and the historical context of the Electoral College. Despite past inaccuracies, Lichtman emphasizes the solid quantitative foundation of his system, which has accurately forecasted election outcomes for decades.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, has emerged as a key influencer in Washington regarding AI regulation, leveraging lessons from social media's past missteps. With a focus on ensuring U.S. leadership in AI to counter autocratic nations like China, Altman has transformed OpenAI into a lobbying force, emphasizing the need for robust infrastructure akin to the New Deal to foster innovation and competitiveness.
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that the upcoming U.S. elections will significantly impact global markets, regardless of the winner. He anticipates market volatility and notes that both candidates are likely to exacerbate the U.S. budget deficit, projected to reach $2 trillion in 2024. Financial regulation may tighten under a Harris administration, reflecting the Biden administration's approach to banking oversight.
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that the upcoming U.S. elections will significantly impact global markets, regardless of the winner. Both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are expected to exacerbate the U.S. budget deficit, currently at $1.8 trillion, while market volatility is anticipated as investors react to the electoral outcome. As markets prepare for the November 5 polls, there are concerns about inflation and trade protectionism, with a potential increase in public debt globally. UBS aims to support clients through this uncertainty, leveraging its strong capital position.
UBS Group reported a strong Q3 net profit of $1.4 billion, nearly double analysts' expectations, driven by robust loan revenue and cost reductions. However, the bank cautioned about potential market volatility due to the upcoming U.S. elections and a decline in interest income. The Wealth Management division saw pre-tax profits rise, while the Investment Banking unit exceeded estimates with a pre-tax profit of approximately $405 million.
Kamala Harris
People
The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
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